Seagate Technology (STX)


January 25, 2024

STX: Recovery Gains Further Traction

By Steven Fox

Seagate’s (STX; $89.17; E/W) FQ2 (Dec) results and outlook provided further confirmation for the idea that the company is now on a consistent recovery track, discussed below, per the expected improvement in key FQ2 metrics…

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January 24, 2024

STX: First Look at FQ2 (Dec) Results and Outlook

By Steven Fox

Seagate (STX; $89.17; E/W) reported FQ2 (Dec) non-GAAP EPS of a profit of $0.12, which comfortably beat our estimate of a ($0.03) loss and the Street’s ($0.06) on sales of $1,555mm (vs. our $1,582mm and…

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January 17, 2024

STX: Bumping Up Estimates

By Steven Fox

We are bumping up our FQ2E (Dec) EPS for Seagate (STX; $83.33; E/W) from ($0.13) to ($0.03) to account for management commentary in recent weeks that suggested some better HDD shipments in the quarter (measured…

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October 27, 2023

STX: The Struggle is Still Real

By Steven Fox

We adjust F2024/F2025E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $65.84; E/W) from ($0.03)/$2.65 to ($0.15)/$3.00 after its FQ1 (Sep) results generally lived up to recently lowered targets, with puts and takes, but FQ2E (Dec) guidance was…

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September 11, 2023

STX: Adjusting Estimates for Further Headwinds

By Steven Fox

We reduce our F2024E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $65.37; E/W) from a profit of $0.13 to a loss of ($0.03) to catch up with the management warnings last week at an investor conference that…

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July 27, 2023

STX: Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures

By Steven Fox

We reduce F2024E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $61.46; E/W) from $1.25 to $0.13 after another round of disappointing guidance. On the plus side, management seems to have finally “thrown in the towel” around expectations…

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July 17, 2023

STX: Reducing Estimates Ahead of FQ4 Print

By Steven Fox

We are reducing our FQ4 (Jun) and F2024E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $61.57; E/W) ahead of the company’s release of full FQ4 results on July 26th (after market). Recall, STX warned at an investor…

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June 6, 2023

STX: Meeting Highlights Near-Term Caution

By Steven Fox

Last Thursday (6/1), we hosted an investor meeting at Seagate’s (STX; $60.86; E/W) offices in San Jose, CA where we met with Rod Cooper, VP Finance, and IR, along with Jingjing Chen from the IR…

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April 20, 2023

STX: Seeing More Headwinds Ahead

By Steven Fox

We are cutting F2023/F2024E (Jun) EPS further for Seagate (STX; $57.08; E/W) after the company produced an FQ3 (Mar) “miss and lower” that more than confirmed our ongoing concerns around cloud and IT spending, customer…

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April 20, 2023

STX: First Look at FQ3 (Mar) Results and Outlook

By Steven Fox

Seagate (STX; $62.86; E/W) reported FQ3 (Mar) non-GAAP EPS that was a loss of ($0.28) on sales of $1,860mm, which was well below our recently lowered estimate for a profit of $0.22 (on sales of…

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April 13, 2023

STX: Lowering Some Expectations Ahead of FQ3 Print

By Steven Fox

We reduce F2023E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $64.64; E/W) from $1.70 to $1.40 ahead of its FQ3 (Mar) results and outlook, scheduled for next Thursday (4/20 after market). We think FQ3E sales, already assumed…

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March 29, 2023

STX: Yet More Cost Actions

By Steven Fox

This morning, Seagate (STX; $62.40; E/W) disclosed in an 8-K filing that it is proceeding with yet another round of cost actions, which we view as a negative indicator for its upcoming FQ3 (Mar) results…

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March 1, 2023

STX: Lightens the Opex Load a Bit More

By Steven Fox

Yesterday, Luminar Technologies (LAZR; $8.95; NR) announced it acquired Seagate’s (STX; $64.56; E/W) LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) program back in January. Terms of the transaction were not announced and this agreement was not previously…

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January 26, 2023

STX: A Shorter Route to Production Re-Start Than We Assumed

By Steven Fox

We raise F2023/F2024E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $62.25; E/W) from $1.35/$3.20 to $1.70/$3.85 after FQ2 (Dec) EPS of $0.16 exceeded our $0.07 and the Street’s $0.09, on slightly better sales and operating margins as…

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January 23, 2023

STX: Too Early to Think Cyclical Recovery into FQ2 Print

By Steven Fox

The shares of Seagate (STX; $63.23; E/W) have now surged 26% just since late-December lows (including +7% today) to levels last seen in mid-September, ahead of the company’s FQ2 (Dec) results and outlook on Wednesday…

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