Seagate Technology (STX)


July 24, 2024

STX: Demonstrates Further Pricing Power

By Steven Fox

We raise F2025E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $105.30; E/W) from $5.85 to $7.00 after it produced FQ4 (Jun) EPS that handily beat the high end of its guidance, which management communicated in early-June was…

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July 23, 2024

STX: First Look at FQ4 (Jun) Results and Outlook

By Steven Fox

Seagate (STX; $105.30; E/W) reported FQ4 (Jun) non-GAAP EPS of $1.05, which beat our $0.87. By comparison, the Street was modeling $0.75, which we have viewed as “stale” since the company’s positive update in early-June…

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July 16, 2024

STX: Trends Should Look Fresh, Albeit Against Stale Consensus

By Steven Fox

We think underlying fundamentals behind Seagate’s (STX; $109.10; E/W) positive FQ4 (Jun) guidance update last month should comfortably support our and Street’s F2025E (Jun) forecasts, especially when it comes to gross margins, when it reports…

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June 4, 2024

STX: More Optimistic on June Quarter

By Steven Fox

We are raising our F2024/F2025E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $91.85; E/W) from $0.93/$5.40 to $1.10/$5.85 after the company’s CFO Gianluca Romano provided a positive update at an investor conference earlier today. Specifically, STX now…

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April 24, 2024

STX: Sticking to Supply Plan as HDD Demand Improves Some More

By Steven Fox

We raise our F2024/F2025E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $86.53; E/W) from $0.75/$4.35 to $0.93/$5.40 after FQ3 (Mar) results and guidance generally lived up to expectations across key metrics, albeit with “puts and takes”. STX…

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April 23, 2024

STX: First Look at FQ3 (Mar) Results and Outlook

By Steven Fox

Seagate (STX; $86.49; E/W) reported FQ3 (Mar) non-GAAP EPS of $0.33, which was ahead of our $0.30 estimate and the Street’s $0.29 despite moderately lower than expected sales ($1,655mm vs. our $1,662mm and the Street’s…

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April 15, 2024

STX: Some Worries into FQ3 (Mar) Print?

By Steven Fox

The shares of Seagate (STX; $85.19; E/W) are -10% since it “only” reiterated FQ3E (Mar) sales and EPS guidance of $1.5-1.8B (+6% QoQ and -11% YoY at the mid-point) and $0.05-0.45 back on March 6th….

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January 25, 2024

STX: Recovery Gains Further Traction

By Steven Fox

Seagate’s (STX; $89.17; E/W) FQ2 (Dec) results and outlook provided further confirmation for the idea that the company is now on a consistent recovery track, discussed below, per the expected improvement in key FQ2 metrics…

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January 24, 2024

STX: First Look at FQ2 (Dec) Results and Outlook

By Steven Fox

Seagate (STX; $89.17; E/W) reported FQ2 (Dec) non-GAAP EPS of a profit of $0.12, which comfortably beat our estimate of a ($0.03) loss and the Street’s ($0.06) on sales of $1,555mm (vs. our $1,582mm and…

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January 17, 2024

STX: Bumping Up Estimates

By Steven Fox

We are bumping up our FQ2E (Dec) EPS for Seagate (STX; $83.33; E/W) from ($0.13) to ($0.03) to account for management commentary in recent weeks that suggested some better HDD shipments in the quarter (measured…

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October 27, 2023

STX: The Struggle is Still Real

By Steven Fox

We adjust F2024/F2025E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $65.84; E/W) from ($0.03)/$2.65 to ($0.15)/$3.00 after its FQ1 (Sep) results generally lived up to recently lowered targets, with puts and takes, but FQ2E (Dec) guidance was…

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September 11, 2023

STX: Adjusting Estimates for Further Headwinds

By Steven Fox

We reduce our F2024E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $65.37; E/W) from a profit of $0.13 to a loss of ($0.03) to catch up with the management warnings last week at an investor conference that…

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July 27, 2023

STX: Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures

By Steven Fox

We reduce F2024E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $61.46; E/W) from $1.25 to $0.13 after another round of disappointing guidance. On the plus side, management seems to have finally “thrown in the towel” around expectations…

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July 17, 2023

STX: Reducing Estimates Ahead of FQ4 Print

By Steven Fox

We are reducing our FQ4 (Jun) and F2024E (Jun) EPS for Seagate (STX; $61.57; E/W) ahead of the company’s release of full FQ4 results on July 26th (after market). Recall, STX warned at an investor…

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June 6, 2023

STX: Meeting Highlights Near-Term Caution

By Steven Fox

Last Thursday (6/1), we hosted an investor meeting at Seagate’s (STX; $60.86; E/W) offices in San Jose, CA where we met with Rod Cooper, VP Finance, and IR, along with Jingjing Chen from the IR…

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